September 2025: Inflation Back in the Spotlight
As 2025 progresses, U.S. trade policies are reshaping the global economic landscape. Tariffs imposed by Washington — rising from an average of 2% earlier this year to over 10% today (and likely 15–20% soon) — are disrupting supply chains and fueling persistent inflationary pressures. In other words: inflation is coming, whether we like it or not.
In the short term, the Fed continues to support markets. Yet political pressure from the Trump administration to cut rates quickly could weaken the central bank’s independence. History — especially lessons from the 1960s and 1970s — reminds us that when the Fed bows too much to political power, inflation surges and market confidence erodes.
As a result, investors now face a dual reality: inflation that is more stubborn than anticipated, and a Fed that may give in to White House pressure.
Our Positioning
Given this context, our current strategy remains:
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- a slight overweight in equities, particularly in Europe and Asia;
- an underweight in global bonds;
- and a preference for the Japanese yen and select high-yield emerging market currencies.
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Read the full September analysis here:
👉 Complete report